October 2008

Working for a financial company during a financial crisis (… or not)

The post you’re about to read first appeared here on October 27th, for less than 24 hours.

On the morning of October 28th, while en route to work after a doctor’s appointment, I received a call from the Human Resources director of the company that had employed me for nearly three years. He asked if I had written this, and I said yes (I assume this was a formality — I’d never tried to keep my blog a secret, and my name was right there). He informed me that my post was in violation of company policy, and that I should not return to work. “Why? What company policy?” I stammered, in tears. “Disclosure of company private information,” he replied. I said I was sorry, that I had no idea I’d said anything private, but that I could take the post down. “Everything in this building is private,” he replied, and told me to go home and await further communication.

I went home, immediately deleted the post and emailed that I had done so, with another apology and protestation of innocent intent. The next day my manager called and told me that he’d been instructed to fire me, that there was nothing he could do.

So less than 48 hours after making this post, I was terminated, with no warning and no recourse. The fact that I had transgressed in ignorance, that I was willing to remove the post and not so much as mention the company ever again, made no difference.

I was floored. There’s a substantial argument to be made that I was absurdly naive and I should not have been shocked by this turn of events, to which I can only shrug, helpless. It’s probably true. No matter how hard I work to fit in, I am not very good at understanding, much less anticipating, the corporate mindset; my core personality traits — such as honesty and openness — are not assets in most corporate cultures.

After the first shock wore off, I was thrown into both a panic over finding replacement work and depression over my error of judgment. For a long time I was unable to bear anything to do with Pocketmint because of the emotional association.

Months passed; I recovered my equilibrium. I thought about Pocketmint a lot, and decided that it was too important to me to just abandon forever, and so began to post once more.

And now I’m returning the one post I ever withdrew. I’ve removed the name of the company I worked for and other identifying information; my intent here is not vindictive. I just figure that appearing to desert a blog after only five months makes me look like a flake or a dilettante, and I hope that, knowing the true situation, former and future readers will cut me some slack for the November-to-May gap.

•   •   •

Working for a financial company during a national (global?) financial crisis is … interesting, in the Chinese-curse sense.

Under normal circumstances, I have little contact with the brokerage side of the business (and none whatsoever with the bank). I do the graphic design for the subsidiary which sells 401(k) plans to small businesses, a nearly unrelated proposition.

For the past three weeks, though, it’s been absolutely crazy. [The company] was receiving nearly triple the expected number of new account applications for the month of October, and up to ten times the typical number of calls to its customer care line. The web site, being pounded mercilessly with people trying to trade, periodically slowed to a crawl, which of course only increased the calls to customer care, and so on.

In order to keep the phone wait times down, the company president called for all hands on deck starting October 6th. Dozens of new phone stations were cobbled together and staffed with employees from other departments. I sat through two hours of powerpoint training, a two-minute explanation of which buttons to push on the phone, and then was turned loose on the poor unsuspecting callers, with no more information than what I could glean on the fly from the [company] public web site.

I gathered later that some of the recruits received more training and assistance than I did, and many were coming from jobs that were more relevant than mine, but my personal position was fairly miserable. No one was asking the easy questions we were prepped to answer in our quick overview, and I didn’t know the answers to the questions they were asking. Nor did I have access to view any customer accounts, which almost every caller required. I felt useless and terrible, repeating my mantra of “I’m sorry, I don’t know, let me transfer you,” and went AWOL from the so-called “[X] Army” as quickly as possible.

As of today, things seem to be back to a more normal state; the emergency phone stations have sat empty all day. Twenty-seven new customer care employees are into their second week of training in the big conference room downstairs. Our saviors!

I don’t have any official confirmation, but word on the floor was that a large majority of the people calling in were trying to buy rather than sell — this also accounted for the high number of new accounts. I find that fascinating, especially considering that [my company] targets mainly inexperienced, small-figure investors. It suggests that a lot of ordinary folk may see the drop in the stock market as an opportunity rather than a calamity.

I hope they’re right. I’ve been doing a great deal of financial study lately, and not finding much cause for reassurance. I am deeply worried that we are making the same mistake about the stock market that we recently made about the housing market — assuming that because something has been true in the past, it will be true in the future. I’ll talk more about that in a future post (or several).

One thing I’m sure of: we are indeed living in interesting times.

Which President would economists pick?

The presidential candidates have finally figured out that the top concern of most Americans right now is our floundering economy, and predictably they’ve both claimed to have the best economic solution.

As I wrote before, I’m skeptical about how much influence the President has over the economy, especially in the short term. But I’m just a layperson. Wouldn’t it be great to know what a majority of professional economists think about the presidential candidates?

Scott Adams thought so too. The author of Dilbert says, “I found myself wishing someone would give voters useful and unbiased information about which candidate has the best plans for the economy. Then I realized that I am someone, which is both inconvenient and expensive.”

Also: awesome. Adams personally commissioned and paid for a survey of 523 economists, and then released the detailed data to the public. There’s a whole lot of raw information there I won’t go into; you can read the original source (.ppt) or an overview with commentary by Adams on CNN.

Back to our original question, though: in this survey 59 percent of the economists say Obama would be best for the long-term economy, while 31 percent prefer McCain. Only 10 percent believe that there would be no difference.

Two points come to mind: one, note the phrasing: long-term economy. No one here is expecting a quick fix, regardless of election outcome. And two, the question was asked on a seven-point scale, with the three points on either end representing a candidate, and only the middle point representing ‘no difference.’ This would tend to skew the responses toward picking either candidate over none; there was no reporting that separated the ‘major change’ voters (the 1s and 7s) from the ‘minor change’ voters (the 3s and 5s).

Another interesting fact is that economists (both in this study, and in the country at large) are predominantly Democrats. Don’t know why, but there it is. Among Independent economists, however, Obama is still favored, 49% to 37%. (The other 14% are in the ‘no difference’ camp.)

And finally, on the question of whether we should care about the opinions of economists, I’ll quote from Adams’ blog:

If a weather expert tells you what the weather will be on a specific day next year, you can safely ignore him. If he tells you a hurricane is heading your way, it’s a good idea to get out of the way, even if the storm ends up turning. That’s playing the odds.

Likewise, if an economist tries to tell you where the stock market will be in a year, you can safely ignore that. But if he tells you a gas tax holiday is an unambiguously bad idea, that’s worth listening to, especially if economists on both sides of the aisle agree.

If you think it is okay to ignore economists because they are so often wrong, you’re looking at the wrong questions. Economists are generally wrong with complicated models but right about concepts. For example, they know that additional domestic drilling won’t make much of a dent in the energy problem. And they know that free trade is generally good for all economies. (You can argue with my examples, but the point is that some things are generally known by economists while not being understood by the general public.)

By analogy, a mechanic knows that changing your oil is good for your engine, but he can’t tell you what problems you will have with your car next year. You shouldn’t ignore the mechanic’s advice on changing oil just because he doesn’t know when your battery will die, or because he didn’t personally perform any scientific studies on oil changes.

Personally, I’d love to see a Nobel Prize-winning economist as President. Sadly, this is not an option.

One way or another, though, it’s time to change the oil in our car.

(Photo by jmtimages.)